Can Farmers Compete With Rapidly Changing Technology?
Agriculture has always been an industry shaped by technology. From the invention of the tractor to modern combines, GPS-guided machinery and genetically improved crops, technological innovation has continually changed how farmers produce food. Today, however, the pace of change is accelerating. Artificial intelligence, robotics, drones, satellite imagery, automated machinery and precision agriculture are moving from experimental concepts into everyday farming.
This raises an important question: Can farmers especially smaller and family-owned farms keep up with rapidly changing technology?
The answer is complicated. Technology may be one of agriculture’s greatest opportunities, but it can also create a competitive divide between farms that can afford the latest equipment and those that cannot.
The Rise of the Digital Farm
Modern agriculture is increasingly becoming a data-driven industry. Farmers can use GPS guidance, soil maps, yield monitors, variable-rate technology, sensors and aerial imagery to make decisions based on conditions within individual fields.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, automated guidance systems were used on more than half of the acreage planted to several major crops by 2019. More recent USDA data show that in 2023, autosteering systems were used by approximately 52% of midsize farms and 70% of large-scale crop-producing farms. (Economic Research Service)
These technologies can allow farmers to apply fertilizer, seed and crop-protection products more precisely, potentially reducing waste while improving productivity.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations also recognizes digital agriculture as a potentially transformative force. Digital technologies can improve agricultural productivity, resource efficiency, climate resilience, disease monitoring and farmers’ access to markets. (FAOHome)
But Technology Is Expensive
The biggest challenge isn’t necessarily whether farmers want new technology. It is whether they can afford it.
A large farming operation may be able to spread the cost of an advanced tractor, autonomous machinery or precision-agriculture system across thousands of acres. A smaller farm may have considerably less acreage over which to spread that investment.
USDA research has found that adoption of precision-agriculture technologies generally increases with farm size. Larger farms are more likely to use technologies such as guidance systems, while smaller farms have lower adoption rates. (Economic Research Service)
This creates a potential technological divide.
If a farmer spends hundreds of thousands of dollars on new equipment, that investment has to generate enough additional revenue or savings to justify the expense. Farmers must therefore evaluate technology not simply by asking, “Is this the newest technology?”, but rather, “Will this technology make my farm more profitable?”
Artificial Intelligence Could Change the Equation
Artificial intelligence could become one of the most significant technological developments in agriculture.
AI systems can analyze enormous quantities of information—including weather conditions, satellite imagery, soil data, crop health and historical yields—to help farmers make decisions.
Instead of treating an entire field as one uniform environment, future farming systems could increasingly identify individual areas that require different amounts of water, fertilizer or crop protection.
Robotics could also reduce the amount of manual labor required for certain agricultural tasks. Autonomous tractors, robotic weeders, automated harvesting systems and robotic dairy equipment are examples of technologies that could reshape agricultural labor.
The USDA’s 2026 research on precision dairy farming provides an example of the potential financial impact. Researchers found that robotic milking, or the use of multiple precision-dairy technologies, was associated with an average 13% increase in dairy net returns in the farms studied. (Economic Research Service)
Technology Doesn’t Necessarily Replace the Farmer
One of the biggest misconceptions about agricultural automation is that technology will simply eliminate farmers.
In reality, technology may change what it means to be a farmer.
The farmer of the future could spend less time physically operating machinery and more time managing data, equipment, finances, logistics and production strategies.
A tractor may eventually be capable of operating autonomously, but someone still needs to determine what should be planted, when fields should be worked, how much risk the farm can accept and how products should be marketed.
Technology can automate tasks, but agriculture remains dependent on human decision-making.
The Competitive Advantage May Be Adaptability
Farmers don’t necessarily have to purchase every new technology to remain competitive.
In many cases, the most successful strategy may be selective adoption.
A farmer might invest in GPS guidance because it provides an immediate benefit while delaying an expensive autonomous tractor until the technology becomes more affordable. Another farmer might use satellite imagery or agricultural software without purchasing an entirely new fleet of machinery.
USDA research has found that farmers’ technology-adoption decisions are influenced by factors including equipment prices, labor savings, expected productivity improvements and access to consultants. (Economic Research Service)
This suggests that successful farmers may not necessarily be the ones with the most technology. They may be the ones who understand which technology actually creates value.
The Future Could Be a Partnership Between Farmers and Technology
Agriculture is unlikely to become completely human-free.
Instead, the industry may move toward a partnership between farmers and increasingly intelligent machines.
Farmers provide experience, judgment and knowledge of their land. Technology provides data, automation, precision and computational power.
That combination could become particularly important as farmers face rising production costs, labor challenges and changing environmental conditions. USDA researchers identify digital agriculture as one potential response to these challenges. (Economic Research Service)
There is also evidence that technological innovation has historically played a major role in American agricultural productivity. USDA data show that U.S. farm output increased by 210% between 1948 and 2023, while total factor productivity grew at an average annual rate of approximately 1.40%. USDA attributes long-term productivity growth largely to technological change, research and development, improvements in farming practices and related innovations. (Economic Research Service)
So, Can Farmers Compete?
Yes—but the rules of competition are changing.
Farmers who ignore technological development completely could face increasing pressure from more automated and data-driven operations. At the same time, farmers don’t necessarily need to become technology companies to survive.
The more realistic future is one in which farmers adopt technology strategically.
The challenge for the agricultural industry will be making sure that technological progress doesn’t leave smaller farms behind. Affordable equipment, rural broadband, education, agricultural extension services, financing and accessible digital tools could help more farmers participate in the technological transformation.
Ultimately, technology should not replace the farmer. It should make the farmer more capable.
The future of agriculture may therefore not be a battle between farmers and machines. It could be a partnership—where human experience and technological intelligence work together to produce more food, use fewer resources and build a more resilient agricultural industry.
References
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Precision Agriculture in the Digital Era: Recent Adoption on U.S. Farms. 2023. (Economic Research Service)
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Precision Agriculture Use Increases With Farm Size and Varies Widely by Technology. 2024. (Economic Research Service)
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Agricultural Productivity in the United States. Updated 2026. (Economic Research Service)
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Precision Dairy Farming, Robotic Milking, and Profitability in the United States. 2026. (Economic Research Service)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Digital Agriculture and AI Innovation. (FAOHome)
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Technology — Science, Technology and Innovation. (FAOHome)
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